KASB 2020-21 Enrollment Projections

Posted Date: 05/06/2021

This article summarizes the findings from the KASB 2020-21 Enrollment Projections and describes the methods KASB members can use to access this information. 

Key Findings 

KASB’s enrollment projections for the 2021-22 through 2025-26 school years indicate: 

• Births in Kansas continue to decline, suggesting future enrollments past these projections will also decline. 

• Total enrollment is projected to increase slightly in 2021-22 and 2022-23, then decrease by nearly 1% each year from 2023-24 through 2025-26, with a cumulative change of -2.33% from 2020-21 through 2025-26. 

• Grade distribution shows a slight shift towards higher grades making up a larger percent of the population, again suggesting that enrollments can be expected to decline past these projections if this trend continues.  

• The percentages of students classified as Economically Disadvantaged, English Language Learners, and Free Lunch Eligible are expected to decline slightly, while the percentages of students participating in Special Education and those eligible for Reduced-Price Lunch are expected to increase slightly by 2025-26.   

• No notable change is expected in the gender, race, or ethnic makeup of the student population. 

• The average student age decreases through 2022-23, then increases through 2025-26, paralleling the trend of anticipated increases in enrollment for the next couple of years, followed by decreases through 2025-26 and potentially beyond. 

Birth Data 

KASB’s enrollment projections rely on both historical enrollment data and county-level live birth statistics.  The following table shows births by school year from 2007-08 through 2018-19. 

As the table shows, since 2007-08 there was a 14% decrease in the number of children born in Kansas each school year.  With the number of children born in Kansas declining, enrollment numbers can be expected to continue to decline past the five year projection included in this data.  

Total Enrollment 

The following chart and table show the total enrollment by school year.  Data from 2007-08 through 2020-21 is actual, and data from 2021-22 through 2025-26 is projected. 

Enrollment increased slightly each year from 2016-17 through 2019-20, but in 2020-21, we saw a 3.36% decrease, likely due largely to COVID-19.  The projections suggest that the total will increase slightly in 2021-22 and 2022-23, then decrease by nearly 1% each year from 2023-24 through 2025-26, with a cumulative change of -2.33% from 2020-21 through 2025-26.   

It should be noted that it is difficult to determine how the uncharacteristic decline in enrollment this year impacts the accuracy of these projections.  

Grade Levels 

The chart above and table below show the enrollment by grade level. 

As the table shows, there is not much change in the overall distribution of students by grade level as a percent of the total student population.  However, there is a notable decrease in the lower grades and a notable increase in the higher grades, suggesting that Kansas should expect a continued decline in the overall student population past 2025-26.   

Accessing the KASB Enrollment Projection Data 

KASB has the data described above available for each district on the KASB Member Portal.  The page provides this data in a downloadable Excel File, in an online interactive tool (shown above), and in online tables and forms. 

To access this data, log into the KASB Member Portal at https://kasb.org/member-portal/ then click on the “Member Resources” menu, hover over the “District-Level Data” item and then select “KASB Enrollment Projections” from the submenu.   

If you need assistance logging on to the Member Portal and/or finding this information, email pinpoint@kasb.org.